Marc wrote:
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>
>
>
> Because of the anticipated lower price, 2008 sales of 30 million to 40
> million units “is achievable,” Chang said.
>
> This would be a much larger volume than is expected of the first iPhone,
> Apple has targeted sales of 10 million units in 2008, which would give it a
> 1 percent share of the global market.
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>
>

Uh... just how many ATT/Cingular customers are there? If anywhere near
30-40 million+, can the vast majority really be expected to switch from
subsidized, almost-free phones to $300+/- phones??? Or are other
carriers and countries going to be offering other markets? Do those
numbers really make sense?

If I read the 2nd quoted paragraph correctly, it seems Apple expects to
sell 10 million (original?) iPhones in 2008, which would have to be a
substantial portion of the ATT/Cingular customer base, and then 30-40
million more for the "Nano-phone"?

I think it will be informative to see how long the initial sales pace
can continue until most of the potential iPhone customers have made
their purchases. It seems to me likely that the sales curve will look
something like a huge spike in these first weeks followed by the steep
downslope of a drastic fall-off.

Time will tell...

ROC