At 16 Nov 2007 21:15:52 -0700 Oxford wrote:

> Well, here's the word. Apple with or without Google/AT&T will bid on
the
> 700Mhz spectrum that will be auctioned by the US Government in January
> of 2008. They need to buy about 22 Mhz of the spectrum (60Mhz is being
> sold) to cover the entire country.

Um, how does that even make sense? Spectrum equals capacity, not coverage.

Theoretically you could "cover the entire country" with 1MHz, if you
owned 1MHz in every market. You just couldn't have many users with such
limited bandwidth.


> Now you understand why Apple didn't want to be locked into the old 3G
> standard.

Gee, I thought they'd just use WiFi! Why buy 700MHz licensed spectrum?
;-)

> As you may know, AT&T bought Aloha Partners 700Mhz... about 10 Mhz or
> about half the country.

Argh! That's not how it works. Let's dumb it down a little for you, and
compare it to TV: a single VHF TV channel is 6 MHz of spectrum. There
are 12 (VHF) channels (numbered 2-13) in each TV market. Each TV market
(there are over 200 of them) have the same 12 channels (72 MHz of
spectrum) available. To cover the entire country with "Oxfordvision,"
you'd need to buy (at least) one channel (6MHz) in EACH of all 211 markets,

which would cover the whole country with 6 MHz. If you bought one
channel in 100 markets you'd only cover half the country BUT STILL HAVE 6
MHz in the areas you did cover. Buying all 12 channels in one city
wouldn't cover 12 cities. Get it?

"22 MHz" of 700MHz-band spectrum doesn't necessarily cover the entire
country unless you get access to that 22 MHz everywhere.


AT&T doesn't own licenses to "half the country" BECAUSE they only have
10MHz, but because the 10MHz licenses they bought from Aloha (that Aloha
was going to use for TV on cellphones) were for certain markets only.

> The 700Mhz frequency is Gold in the sky! A wireless internet will one
> day be all there is. Whoever owns this beach front property owns
> the cell phone world.

Atually, 700MHz is no more magical than the 60MHz of 800MHz licenses used
today. Currently there is 180 MHz of cellular/PCS spectrum available,
IIRC. (60 at 800, 120 at 1900.) This simply adds 60 more, or another 33%.

In some markets, AT&T and/or Verizon already own up to 60 MHz each.
Grabbing 20 MHz at 700 will hardly make Apple a usurper- thwy won't have
enough capacity to challenge their new rivals.

> And no one will ever sell this to a competitor.

Actually they might have to, or at least "lease it." The FCC is
hammering out "open access" rules for a portion of the 700MHz band, and
might force the winners to wholesale it to competitors (much like local
wireline CLECs lease infrastructure from the local ILEC.) This could
make the 700MHz band the least desirable to carriers.

> Apple
> must buy in or control this area if they are to control their cell
phone
> experience.

Well, the open access rules will likely force BYOD on carriers (Bring
Your Own Device) meaning they couldn't make it an all iPhone network-
ayone with a compatible device would have to be allowed access.

> And here's the best part.
>
> As this network is already built out for analogue TV, it will cost
> little to change things for Wimaxx.

Huh? The cost will actually be huge, since the entire network has to be
built from scratch. Wireless communication is much different from
TV/radio's "the big transmitter on the mountain covers the whole area"
scenario. Plus no cellular device in existence currently accesses this
band, forcing the creation of all new phones.


> Instant nationwide network

"Instant" after you build the hundred thousand towers to carry this
network, that is...

> that goes
> through walls way easier than any other Mhz band.

Actually, one could easily argue VHF (30-150MHz) is better, but it's not
for sale! Either way, this 700-band is no better or more desirable than
the 800-MHz currently in use. The real excitement is simply that new
spectrum has opened up.

> So reception is
> better, distance travels longer and coverage is nationwide just as
> analogue TV is...

History lesson for you Oxy- where did the 800MHz cellular band come from?

Giveaway hint: what's different about old (pre 1980's) TVs compared to
modern analog TVs?

>and it will cost very little to maintain relative to
> what cell phone companies compete with... you only need 1/4 of the
sites
> as the 1.8Ghz that most cell phones use.

"Most cell phones" use 800MHz, which is essentially the same as 700 (hint
#2 to my question above.) 1.8GHz is a European band (analogous to our
1900MHz PCS band.)

> So others use a weaker signal
> which equates to more lost calls and static, more sites, higher
> expenses, etc..

Complete and utter BS. AT&T and Verizon predominantly use 800MHz.
Besides, except in rural areas, capacity issues require both 800MHz and
1900MHz carriers to space sites much closer together than the minimum
coverage requirement. A cell tower can only handle a couple of thousand
users simultaneously- even, if, say, lower Manhattan could be served by a
single tower with respect to range, you'd never be able to make a call
because all the "lines" would continually be jammed.

> Apple could pull of the coup d'etat of the century, if they said, buy
> your cell phone and use our Wimaxx to dial any number in the US and
> receive any call fo the monthly price of $0 for 2 years.

How could they manage that? Any call to a landline or competitors' cell
generates $0.01-0.07 cents/minute in termination fees... Apple doesn't
have a rich tradition in giving anything away.

> the iPhone
> would be the hottest product even more
> so than the Razor was... just
> think of a cell that is free for 2 years.. that's huge...

Any competitor that likes losing money could do this in the 800MHz band,
1900, or even landlines. Few companies like providing consumers a free
service then paying their competiors when people use it!

> what does
> Apple gain from this...they could probably sell 100 million iPhones at
> $299 each over a 2 year period or less and own the cell phone market.

So could Verizon, or AT&T, but why? "Owning a market" if each customer
costs you $30.00/month is a very lousy idea!

> Then charge $50 per month for unlimited calling plans... still a good
> deal...


Not with 22MHz of spectrum! Go ask the $50 unlimited users of Leap or
Metro PCS how easy it is to make a call duribg peak usage times. The
point of limiting plans is to prevent a bandwidth crunch. A major player
offering nationwide unlimited service for $50 would have more unhappy
customers than AOL did when they oversold their service years ago.

> and half or more of that would be profit!

Again, you have no knowledge of the workings of the wireless industry.
After the billions Apple spends to acquire the licenses, then the
additional billions on towers and infrastructure, $50/month would barely
cover the interest!

>Snip fantasy math not grounded in reality<

No wireless company manages anything near $30/month in profit per customer.

Apple, no matter how efficient or brilliant you think they are, could
manage 10 times the profit margin of their competitors.

> If this takes 2-3-4-5 years... that's a 10 bagger! Apple will be the
> largest publicly traded company in the country and own both the
> computer and cell phone market.


They certainly won't own either if their knowledge of them is as limited
as yours seems to be!