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Old 07-07-2009, 10:24 PM
Richard B. Gilbert
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Default Re: "Deals between cell phone makers and carriers come under scrutiny"

SMS wrote:
> On Jul 7, 11:41 am, nospam <nos...@nospam.invalid> wrote:
>> In article <TnM4m.5050$Jb1....@flpi144.ffdc.sbc.com>, SMS
>>
>> <scharf.ste...@geemail.com> wrote:
>>> Apple could argue that they don't want to do a CDMA version just for the
>>> U.S. and South Korea, but they could not defend against not allowing the
>>> iPhone to be used on T-Mobile or other U.S. GSM carriers. Of course
>>> Apple would probably be thrilled if the U.S. government deemed that it's
>>> exclusivity arrangement with AT&T were not legal, since they could
>>> quickly bring out a CDMA model, as well as sell the current model on
>>> T-Mobile, adding another 150 million people to the total available
>>> market for the iPhone in the U.S..

>> why would apple be thrilled if the government forced them to make
>> products they are not interested in making?

>
> They are extremely interested in making those products, but they can't
> do it because of the AT&T exclusivity arrangement. If that arrangement
> is deemed to be illegal, it frees Apple from those shackles.
>
> Remember, Apple desperately wanted to go with Verizon for the iPhone,
> but Verizon turned them down because of Apple's demand for monthly
> revenue sharing. AT&T, desperate for new retail postpaid customers,
> went along, with the exclusivity agreement as part of the deal.
>
> So what kind of market is Apple missing out on? In the U.S., there are
> a lot more CDMA (135 million) users than GSM (111 million) even with
> Sprint's recent subscriber losses. Verizon subscribers are especially
> loathe to leave Verizon, if you want to know why, look at all the
> independent surveys of carrier quality, coverage, and service. Not
> even the iPhone will get Verizon subscribers to go to AT&T.
>
> Right now, there's a TAM of 168 million cellular subscribers in the
> U.S. (33 million on T-Mobile, 86 million on Verizon, and 49 million on
> Sprint) that can't get an iPhone and stay with their current provider.
> This is is good news for AT&T, whose subscriber growth is almost
> entirely due to the iPhone, but bad news for Apple.
>
> Dropping in a CDMA/EVDO radio is trivial. It's almost certainly
> already been prototyped, if not for the U.S., for South Korea.
>


Why do you assume that everyone does, or will, want an iPhone? If you
GAVE me one, I'd sell it and keep right on using my current phone!



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