Dennis Ferguson wrote:
> On 2007-02-01, SMS <scharf.steven@geemail.com> wrote:
>>> The math was done long before Q4 2006, don't you think? Not saying you're
>>> incorrect, just pointing out that these discussions likely started back in
>>> Q1/Q2 2005 (at least with Verizon).
>> Of course, but the numbers have been similar for many quarters. Verizon
>> has been signing up far more new contract customers, the high value
>> customers that would be likely to buy an iPhone. When you launch a new
>> product, you go for the biggest TAM (total available market).
>
> Exactly. But Apple has worldwide selling power, and if they goal was
> the biggest total addressable market with a single initial product then
> a GSM product can't be topped.

It's pretty trivial to switch the radio portion of a design from CDMA to
GSM, there are many phones that are available in both technologies. If
Apple was worried about only doing one initial product, then they would
have approached Cingular and not bothered with going to Verizon first.

> Any dalliance with Verizon would have
> meant they'd need to develop a second model to put on the shelves in
> Europe and Asia, so even if we accept that Verizon somehow has an advantage
> in the US which might make up for its smaller subscriber numbers,

Verizon actually has more postpaid subscribers than Cingular, and
continues to sign up more than 2x as many new postpaid customers every
quarter. Clearly Apple looked at these numbers and it was part of the
reason that they went to Verizon first.