From
http://www.computerworld.com.au/inde...8;fp;4;fpid;18
Telecommunications analyst Paul Budde released a report today which predicts
telecoms market growth will drop to 4.1 per cent by 2008 and 3.4 per cent by
2009.
The fall follows a fairly buoyant period with the overall telecoms market
growing 5.2 per cent to $36.6 billion in the 12 months to June, 2007.
Budde said the market will subside over the next two years as Telstra is
forced to begin a period of transformation and reationalisation.
But in 2007, he said Telstra maintained its stranglehold on the wholesale
market with revenues of just under $3 billion in 2007, which constitutes
more than 70 per cent of the $4.2 billion wholesale market.
The total second tier market (including wholesale revenues) grew at around
7.9 per cent in 2007 to $9.2 billion and Budde expects the growth rate to
drop slightly to around six per cent in 2008 and then maintain this level
moving into 2009.
According to the report, Telstra's Retail broadband subscribers jumped 60
per cent to 2.4 million, and market share increased from 45 to 47 per cent.
In fact, retail broadband for the first time exceeded the dollar decline in
PSTN revenues.
Budde said Optus is starting to feel the pinch of a mobile market that has
almost reached saturation point with local access revenue declining.
"After some very tough years the second tier market is finally turning the
corner, although still struggling. Regulations have finally started to fall
in place providing the market with an economically viable wholesale
platform," he said.
" With good wholesale prices in place, by late 2007 the industry has
increased the number of lines which they now operate independently from
Telstra."